25 May 2023
by Z. E. Kendall
The total quantity of primary voters for governor for Republicans has gone up by 41% between 2015 and 2023. This comes as the commonwealth's population has risen by only about 5%. So, it seems like the Republican voter base is more energized than ever in Kentucky.
Sometimes political pundits like to measure primary voter turnout to see how enthusiastic political party members are to vote in that coming election in November. If Republicans can maintain their enthusiasm, they may make a good showing in the coming general election. It seems reasonable to suspect that Republicans will retain their overall hold on the executive branch.
The conservative vote was split between Daniel Cameron, Ryan Quarles, Mike Harmon, and some other candidates, but Daniel Cameron won the GOP primary for governor and will go off against incumbent Democrat governor Andy Beshear, who has already started his video media campaign for re-election.
For Democrats, their primary turnout in recent cycles has seemed to reflect (1) their desire to oppose Republican Gov. Matt Bevin and (2) their expectation that incumbent Andy Beshear would get the nomination from their own political party for re-election. As a result, the quantity of Democrats that showed up in 2023 for the primary race for governor was much less than otherwise would have been expected.
We also expect that the Republicans will retain their majorities in the Kentucky House of Representatives and Kentucky State Senate. So, as far as voter guide strategy is concerned, it seems like it may be better to send out more voter guides in the 2024 primary race than even in the 2024 general election race here in Kentucky. After all, we desire to promote quality candidates that share our values, and getting more involved in the Republican party primaries is a key way to help to do that.
Here's the stats for the total voter turnout for governor in the primaries:
2015 Democrat Primary Voters: 178,514
2019 Democrat Primary Voters: 394,490
2023 Democrat Primary Voters: 193,470
2015 Republican Primary Voters: 214,187
2019 Republican Primary Voters: 259,854
2023 Republican Primary Voters: 302,725
Republicans have surpassed Democrats in total registered voters in the Commonwealth of Kentucky in recent years, but the numbers are still close as of 2023.
Data Sources: Politico, Wikipedia, Ballotpedia